* Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down over 200 points, S&P 500 slides for the third consecutive trading day
* ADP data shows the lowest increase in US private-sector employment since 2021
* Tesla's stock price rises by 4.9%
On Thursday, September 5th, local time, the three major US stock market indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down over 200 points and the S&P 500 index sliding for the third consecutive trading day. Ahead of the key employment data release on Friday, the US August ADP private-sector employment figure hit a new low since 2021, intensifying concerns about a slowdown in the labor market.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 219.22 points to 40,755.75, a decrease of 0.54%; the S&P 500 index dropped 16.66 points to 5,503.41, a decrease of 0.30%; the Nasdaq Composite index rose by 43.37 points to 17,127.66, an increase of 0.25%.
According to data released by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the US August ADP employment figure increased by 99,000, below the expected 140,000, and the previous value was revised down to 111,000, the lowest level since January 2021, intensifying concerns about a slowdown in the labor market.
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ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, stated: "After two years of significant growth, the labor market slowdown has resulted in hiring rates below normal levels. Wage growth, which slowed significantly after the pandemic, is now stabilizing." Meanwhile, employment in the construction industry continues to grow, showing signs of recovery in related sectors before the Federal Reserve's rate cut, and the warehousing industry has also increased hiring efforts due to the approaching holiday season.
Data released by the US Department of Labor on the same day showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 31st was 227,000, lower than the expected 230,000; the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 24th was 1.838 million, also lower than the expected 1.869 million. Analysts believe that the decline in jobless claims may help alleviate market concerns about further deterioration of US employment data.
As inflationary pressures ease, employment data has become the primary focus for the Federal Reserve. Analysts have indicated that if the non-farm employment data shows further weakening in the US job market, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a more significant rate cut.
Following the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has slightly increased. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.The focus of the market this week is on the August non-farm employment data on Friday. The market currently widely expects that the number of non-farm jobs in August will increase by 161,000, higher than the 114,000 in July, and the unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease to 4.2%.
Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that the Federal Reserve now needs to cut interest rates to maintain the health of the labor market, and future economic data will determine the magnitude of the rate cut.
Chris Larkin from Morgan Stanley said, "After today's mixed data, tomorrow's employment report will provide investors with a clearer picture of the labor market conditions. The market is still trying to gauge whether the economy is slowing down too much and whether the Federal Reserve's policy is lagging."
Jonathan Cohn, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at Nomura Securities, said that the market is divided on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September, which almost entirely depends on the results of the non-farm employment report. "If the unemployment rate and layoff data reach certain thresholds, then a 50 basis point rate cut is absolutely possible."
In terms of individual stocks, C3.ai Inc.'s performance in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025 was strong, with corporate demand for AI driving its revenue growth for six consecutive quarters. However, the company's quarterly subscription revenue was below market expectations, and the stock closed down 8.21% at $21.12 per share.
NIO's revenue and delivery volume both set new highs in the second quarter of 2024, with the stock closing up 14.39% at $4.85 per share.
Tesla closed up 4.90% at $230.17 per share. According to media reports, Tesla's AI team said that the FSD system will be launched in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, pending regulatory approval. A Chinese Tesla official said that the news is true, and they are currently waiting for approval from the regulatory authorities.
In the commodity market, international oil prices slightly fell on the 5th. As of the close of trading that day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in October at the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 5 cents, closing at $69.15 per barrel, a decrease of 0.07%.
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